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| ghostdog19 |
 Posted: 05-06-2007 23:14 Post subject: |
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| OldTimeRadio wrote: | | This particular debate is going to go on forever, with never quite enough evidence to convince the Skeptics but always more than enough to satisfy the rest of us. |
exactly.
well said.
Never trust a news report that says "Scientists say..." (there is such a thing as "bad science" and an awful lot of it gets the press coverage) but at the same time never put all your eggs in one basket with an old wives tale. |
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| ghostdog19 |
| Posted: 05-06-2007 23:18 Post subject: |
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[quote="Pietro_Mercurios"] | Quote: | | A study in Florida of murders and aggravated assaults showed clusters of attacks around the full moon. |
Well yeah, better light at night. I'd have thought that was a no-brainer. But it takes scientists to somehow link this to codswallop (well, maybe not just scientists, having read this thread  ) |
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ted_bloody_maul Great Old One Joined: 23 May 2003 Total posts: 4877 Location: Quester's Psykick Dancehall Gender: Unknown |
| Posted: 05-06-2007 23:37 Post subject: |
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| Surely better light would discourage illegal acts rather than encourage them? Also, the effects of the moon's luminosity wouldn't neccessarily explain attacks taking place in a nightclub, for example. |
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| ghostdog19 |
| Posted: 05-06-2007 23:51 Post subject: |
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| ted_bloody_maul wrote: | | Surely better light would discourage illegal acts rather than encourage them? |
Well, the side your car door gets busted into is usually the one under a street lamp... so you'd think it would discourage, but evidently not. That's why they say parking under a street light isn't always a great idea. Also, the crimes described fall roughly into the category of 'opportunity'. No better opportunity if you can see what you're doing AND ensure a swift get away because you can loose someone at 100 yards distance, also, they can't really nail you for a description at 10 yards. So yeah... moonlight and opportunity... not the tides driving someone to do it.
| ted_bloody_maul wrote: | | Also, the effects of the moon's luminosity wouldn't neccessarily explain attacks taking place in a nightclub, for example. |
Well that largely depends on how much you want it to be because of full moons. People look for patterns. Having worked night clubs as a bouncer, the only time things really got messy was generally around pay day... but like I say, people look for patterns. |
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| ted_bloody_maul Great Old One Joined: 23 May 2003 Total posts: 4877 Location: Quester's Psykick Dancehall Gender: Unknown |
| Posted: 06-06-2007 00:23 Post subject: |
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| ghostdog19 wrote: | | Well, the side your car door gets busted into is usually the one under a street lamp... so you'd think it would discourage, but evidently not. That's why they say parking under a street light isn't always a great idea. |
Would that not be because we tend not to have street lamps in the middle of roads ? People, likewise, are more likely to be on a street rather than the middle of a road on most occasions, including those such as the ones prior to any attack they might launch.
| ghostdog19 wrote: | | Also, the crimes described fall roughly into the category of 'opportunity'. No better opportunity if you can see what you're doing AND ensure a swift get away because you can loose someone at 100 yards distance, also, they can't really nail you for a description at 10 yards. So yeah... moonlight and opportunity... not the tides driving someone to do it. |
The crimes mentioned in the report are murder and aggravated assault. They may not neccessarily be crimes of opportunity (particularly if murder here is taken in the legal sense which would disclude a robbery involving lethal but unplanned force being applied). Also, I'd expect streetlights would make the luminosity of the moon redundant (although there's no data as to where these attacks happened). I'd also be interested to know if these statistical increases were maintained even on nights where there is a full moon but significant cloud cover ie most nights in the west coast of Scotland.
| ghostdog19 wrote: | | Well that largely depends on how much you want it to be because of full moons. People look for patterns. Having worked night clubs as a bouncer, the only time things really got messy was generally around pay day... but like I say, people look for patterns. |
Well that's just one example. There are other crimes, such as domestic violence or disputes between neighbours, which may or may not be included in these statistics. In any case many jobs are paid weekly and many paid at different times of the month, many don't get paid at all. Are there any statistics which cover this period of pay day that show any significant rise in the kind of crimes which may be alluded to? |
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| ghostdog19 |
| Posted: 06-06-2007 11:28 Post subject: |
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| ted_bloody_maul wrote: | | Are there any statistics which cover this period of pay day that show any significant rise in the kind of crimes which may be alluded to? |
The problem with this working model is statistics and coincidence are easily intertwined. It 'happened' to be a full moon. It 'happened' to be waining. You have to look at the frequency of that. I got a tad suspicious of the article when it started to count waxing and waining periods, because basically that widens the days in the month to catch potential circumstance on a greater level. Full moons come around with such frequency, it increases the circumstance considerably to include waxing and waining.
So, no. I find it more 'convenient' to assume it's the moon making us mad or whatever. We have calender systems that govern our daily lives... a lot of us go out on Saturday nights, a lot of us get paid at the end of the month, a lot of variable factors that are already factored in to a calendar system which again increases the circumstance. While we'd need an islamic lunar cycle to actually hit the mark, we're still behaving according to determined units of time. We go to work on Monday, we clock off on Friday, we do this on Saturday and that on Sunday. Suddenly, behavour that breaks that pattern is blamed on the moon, and not only that, has its own pattern? Nah.
Last edited by ghostdog19 on 06-06-2007 13:26; edited 1 time in total |
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| JamesWhitehead Piffle Prospector Joined: 02 Aug 2001 Total posts: 5543 Location: Manchester, UK Gender: Male |
| Posted: 06-06-2007 12:28 Post subject: |
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Increasing belle curves ahoy! That old witch Ms Moon is feminizing statistics with a vengeance!
Could this be the end of the old bell as we knew it?  |
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| ted_bloody_maul Great Old One Joined: 23 May 2003 Total posts: 4877 Location: Quester's Psykick Dancehall Gender: Unknown |
| Posted: 06-06-2007 15:56 Post subject: |
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| ghostdog19 wrote: | | The problem with this working model is statistics and coincidence are easily intertwined. It 'happened' to be a full moon. It 'happened' to be waining. You have to look at the frequency of that. |
True, coincidence and statistics can often be intertwined but any set of statistics which support a case must also include coincidence until any correlation is established.
| ghostdog19 wrote: | | I got a tad suspicious of the article when it started to count waxing and waining periods, because basically that widens the days in the month to catch potential circumstance on a greater level. Full moons come around with such frequency, it increases the circumstance considerably to include waxing and waining. |
The article doesn't actually make any reference to the waxing and waning periods in relation to the findings of the Florida police, however. If the article is referring to the study in Dade County many years ago then it would include these periods, however. In any case that particular study seems to have been discredited.
| ghostdog19 wrote: | | So, no. I find it more 'convenient' to assume it's the moon making us mad or whatever. We have calender systems that govern our daily lives... a lot of us go out on Saturday nights, a lot of us get paid at the end of the month, a lot of variable factors that are already factored in to a calendar system which again increases the circumstance. While we'd need an islamic lunar cycle to actually hit the mark, we're still behaving according to determined units of time. |
But a calendar is arbitrary. Whether we measure things by a lunar or solar calendar the moon still has the same phases.
| ghostdog19 wrote: | | We go to work on Monday, we clock off on Friday, we do this on Saturday and that on Sunday. Suddenly, behavour that breaks that pattern is blamed on the moon, and not only that, has its own pattern? Nah. |
Well, no, behaviour which breaks that pattern and happens to coincide with phases of the moon. |
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| akaWiintermoon Great Old One Joined: 04 Jan 2002 Total posts: 994 Location: Southampton, Hampshire, UK. Age: 39 Gender: Female |
| Posted: 06-06-2007 16:55 Post subject: |
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Appolagies if this has been posted before, but I saw this and thought of here. 
Taken from Yahoo news
| Quote: | Police find 'werewolf' link to violence
A police force is to put more officers on the streets during full moons because they believe the lunar cycle may be linked to violent behaviour, a spokeswoman said Tuesday.
Sussex Police have found that drinkers in the seaside city of Brighton and Hove are particularly aggressive during full moons, despite mixed findings from researchers who have examined the issue previously.
"I compared a graph of full moons and a graph of last year's violent crimes and there is a trend," Inspector Andy Parr told the Brighton Argus newspaper.
"People tend to be more aggressive generally. I would be interested in approaching the universities and seeing if any of their post-graduates would be interested in looking into it further. This could be helpful to us."
The announcement has led some locals to joke that werewolves -- humans who, according to myth, turn into wolf-like creatures during a full moon -- may be loose on the city's streets.
"When there is a full moon out, we look at the sky and say, 'Oh no, all the idiots will be out tonight,'" bouncer Terry Wing told the paper.
"I will start looking at the back of people's hands for hair next time."
Research on a link between the lunar cycle and violent behaviour has tended to be sceptical of any connection.
Earlier this year, Professor Michal Zimecki of the Polish Academy of Sciences reportedly found that a full moon could affect criminal activity.
But in a 1998 article for the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry, researchers from the University of Sydney and Manly Hospital in New South Wales found "no significant relationship."
According to folklore, the moon can exert a gravitational pull on humans in the same way as it can move oceans because up to 75 percent of the human body is water.
In separate findings, police also found that violence in pubs and nightclubs increased on paydays.
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| ghostdog19 |
| Posted: 07-06-2007 00:18 Post subject: |
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Werewolves!
Well, that explains it. There's evidently some grain of truth in these findings after all.
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| rynner2 What a Cad!
Great Old One Joined: 13 Dec 2008 Total posts: 20321 Location: Under the moon Gender: Male |
| Posted: 09-11-2010 11:22 Post subject: |
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Long article, covers animal and human behaviour:
Full moon: Ill met by moonlight
It makes wolves howl, toads frisky and cats crazy. The full moon also gets the blame for all manner of human bad behaviour. But are these just old wives' tales – or is there a rational explanation? By Roger Dobson
Tuesday, 9 November 2010
"I see the bad moon arising/I see trouble on the way/I see earthquakes and lightning/I see bad times today/Don't go around tonight ... There's a bad moon on the rise"
(Creedence Clearwater Revival)
It's said to make owls more chatty, toads more frisky, and dogs and cats more aggressive. When the full moon is up, wolves are also more prone to howling, newts to congregating, and mites to keeping a low profile.
Molluscs, crustaceans, insects, fish, birds, mammals and amphibians are all touched by the full moon, according to researchers. And humans too could be at risk of being moonstruck, with reports of increases in seizures, violence, crime, hospital admissions and GP visits, as well as a rise in accidents and a drop in stock market prices during the full moon. Increases in unintentional poisoning and absenteeism are reported too. Is the moon to blame, or are there down-to-earth reasons?
The lunar effect, also known as the Transylvania effect, has long been a source of fascination. Many people – half of university students and 80 per cent of mental health professionals, according to two studies – believe lunar phases can affect behaviour.
etc...
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/features/full-moon-ill-met-by-moonlight-2128730.html |
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| MsQkxyz Mermaid.
Great Old One Joined: 01 Aug 2009 Total posts: 183 Location: Sydney Age: 42 Gender: Female |
| Posted: 09-11-2010 11:48 Post subject: |
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Why do the studies mostly revolve around hospitals and arrests? I don't quite get how lunacy = criminal or dangerous behaviour.
I work in a night club & generally try to avoid working on the full moons. I don't find that there's a higher level of violence or accidents. We just find that people are worse drunks around the full moon. It's not always bad, sometimes it's hilarious! It can be very tiring to deal with it though!
For a change this year I worked a few full moons. A couple of them were outstanding - we did have a howler on one occasion, the first te I've witnessed such a thing 
My midwife friend says the labour wards are always busy around the full moon which is interesting if true. |
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| SHAYBARSABE Great Old One Joined: 05 May 2009 Total posts: 1345 Gender: Unknown |
| Posted: 09-11-2010 20:28 Post subject: |
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| I work at a university, and it might as well always be full moon around here. |
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| rynner2 What a Cad!
Great Old One Joined: 13 Dec 2008 Total posts: 20321 Location: Under the moon Gender: Male |
| Posted: 23-11-2010 09:21 Post subject: |
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Full Moon was at 1727 on Sunday.
But it was followed by strange behaviour which head the Beeb's current news offerings:
| Quote: | Artillery fire on Korean border
South Korea says it has returned fire after North Korea fired around 200 artillery shells onto one of its border islands, reportedly killing one marine.
The South's military was placed on its highest non-wartime alert after the shells landed on Yeonpyeong island.
North Korea has not yet commented on the incident, in which three marines and two civilians were also injured.
Correspondents say this is one of the most serious since the Korean War ended without a peace treaty in 1953.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11818005 |
and
| Quote: | Cambodia declares day of mourning for stampede dead
Cambodia has declared Thursday a national day of mourning after at least 345 people were killed in a stampede in the capital Phnom Penh.
Hundreds more were injured when people were crushed on a small island on the final day of the Water Festival.
The stampede took place on a bridge, which eyewitnesses said had become overcrowded.
Prime Minister Hun Sen ordered an investigation into the cause of the disaster.
Hun Sen described the stampede as the "biggest tragedy" to hit Cambodia since the mass killings carried out by the Khmer Rouge regime in the 1970s.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11817826 |
Makes you think... |
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| rynner2 What a Cad!
Great Old One Joined: 13 Dec 2008 Total posts: 20321 Location: Under the moon Gender: Male |
| Posted: 21-07-2011 09:23 Post subject: |
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I'd just glanced out of the window to see a third quarter (waning) moon when I came across this story...
Lions 'more likely to eat people after a full moon'
A lion is most likely to eat you just after a full moon, research has shown.
7:30AM BST 21 Jul 2011
Other predators, such as wolves, may also be at their most dangerous when the moon starts to wane.
The discovery, from an African study of 500 lion attacks, could explain the full moon's place in folklore as a harbinger of evil or disaster, and its association with werewolves and vampires.
Scientists studied records of nearly 500 lion attacks on Tanzanian villagers between 1988 and 2009.
In more than two thirds of cases, the victims were killed and eaten. The vast majority of attacks occurred between dusk and 10pm on nights when the moon was waning and providing relatively little light.
Lions hunt most successfully when darkness allows them to surprise their prey, but on bright moonlit nights they might have to go hungry.
The period immediately following a full moon provides a lion with a welcome opportunity to catch up on missed meals.
As the moon wanes, it does not appear until well after dusk, which near the equator occurs early even in summer.
Peak danger times for humans are therefore the active hours after sunset, especially the day after a full moon.
The pattern emerged clearly when the researchers compared attack rates with moon phases. Attacks were a third more frequent during the second half of the cycle, when there was little or no moonlight.
Chief investigator Dr Craig Packer, a lion expert based at the University of Minnesota College of Biological Sciences in the US, said: ''People start out at moderate danger during days 0-4, when the moon is only a sliver and sets shortly after sunset.
''Danger then declines as the moon gets brighter each evening, with very few attacks in the nights just before the full moon. Then, wham, danger spikes as those hungry lions can now operate in darkness for the rest of the lunar cycle.
''The post-full-moon spike is restricted to relatively few hours of full darkness before the largish moon rises later in the evening.''
Lion attacks also increased during the rainy season, when the moon was more likely to be obscured by clouds.
The study, published today in the online journal Public Library of Science ONE, involved checking measurements of lion belly size logged regularly since 1978, and records of lion attacks kept by Tanzanian government authorities.
The researchers wrote: ''These findings provide novel insights into human attitudes towards the moon.''
They pointed out that humans have lived close to large nocturnal carnivores for many thousands of years.
Lions were once the most widely distributed mammal in the world, and jaguars, tigers and leopards have co-existed with people in Asia, Africa and tropical America. Human ancestors painted lifelike pictures of lions on cave walls 36,000 years ago.
''Thus we have always been exposed to risks of predation that cycled with the waxing and waning of the moon,'' said the scientists.
Between sunset and sunrise, humans were most active in the evening and at greatest risk from predators.
The researchers added: ''The darkest hours in the early evening are restricted to the weeks following the full moon, and lions are hungriest immediately after the bright evenings of the second quarter.
''Although we are safest from lion attacks during well-lit nights, the full moon accurately indicates that the risks of lion predation will increase dramatically in the coming days. Thus the full moon is not dangerous in itself but is instead a portent of the darkness to come.''
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/8650299/Lions-more-likely-to-eat-people-after-a-full-moon.html |
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