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KeyserXSoze King of Otters
Great Old One Joined: 02 Jun 2002 Total posts: 1040 Gender: Unknown |
 Posted: 24-10-2003 14:14 Post subject: Solar Storm Heading to Earth |
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http://www.spaceweather.com/
This is quite scary, I think. | Quote: | SOLAR EXPLOSIONS: Solar activity is high. An intense X5-class solar flare erupted today (Oct. 23rd at 8:35 UT) from sunspot 486 near the sun's southeastern limb. The explosion hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. Although the CME was not Earth-directed, it could deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field as early as Oct 24th (although the 25th is more likely).
Another CME was already en route when this morning's explosion occured. Pictured right, it was launched on Oct 22nd by an explosion near sunspot 484. Forecasters expect it to arrive on Oct. 24th and possibly trigger a strong geomagnetic storm. Sky watchers at middle latitudes should be alert for auroras.
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I hope we okay.
Update: More here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3210901.stm | Quote: | Earth put on solar storm alert
By Dr David Whitehouse
BBC News Online science editor
One big sunspot and another on the way
Imminent disruption is predicted for satellites, power systems and even mobile phones because of a solar storm.
It comes from one of the largest groups of sunspots seen for years. Several times in recent days superhot gas has erupted above them.
The events, called Coronal Mass Ejections, have sent 10 billion tonnes of superhot gas speeding towards Earth.
As well as communication blackouts, aurorae - polar lights - may be seen from mid-latitudes as the gas arrives.
Target Earth
A coronal mass ejection (CME) is an explosion of gas and charged particles into space from a solar flare in the corona, the outermost layer of the Sun's atmosphere. They are associated with sunspots.
The current large sunspot group is one of the largest for years. In area, it is 10 times larger than the surface of the Earth.
It has been captivating astronomers for days and has already produced several powerful solar flares - huge explosions on the Sun's surface.
One of its flares was designated as X-class - the most powerful category.
Astronomers say that the latest CME sent nearly 10 billion tonnes of matter toward Earth.
It is expected to reach Earth on Friday, and when it interacts with the planet's magnetic field it could create a significant geomagnetic storm.
Geomagnetic activity associated with CMEs can dramatically disrupt electrical and communications systems.
Satellite shutdown
CMEs can create voltage surges in electric power grids, disrupt radio communications and navigation systems, and prevent normal satellite operations.
In 1997, such a storm shut down an AT&T Telstar 401 satellite that provided television broadcasts. The following year another storm disrupted a Galaxy IV satellite that supported automated cash machines and airline tracking systems.
Such storms are also known to affect mobile phone operations and may disrupt wireless internet services.
And there is more to come. Another sunspot group is rotating into view onto the solar disk, showing even more signs of activity.
That particular region caught the attention of solar physicists while it was still on the far side of the Sun.
Using a technique based on the velocity of sound waves through the Sun's outer layers astronomers have realised that a second sunspot cluster was on the Sun's far side. It could produce more geomagnetic storms in the next two weeks. |
Last edited by KeyserXSoze on 24-10-2003 15:03; edited 1 time in total |
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| Anonymous |
| Posted: 24-10-2003 17:17 Post subject: |
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At time of writing, it's apparently going to hit us in about three hours. If this was something lethal to life on earth, it just brings home how helpless and insignificant we would be... as it happens it just screws up mobile phones which I might come to regard as a godsend 
Since we're talking about EM interference, I wonder what its effects on human biology are, and whether we're going to see an increase in weirdness this weekend? |
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| sjwk0 Great Old One Joined: 21 Oct 2002 Total posts: 560 Location: Oxford Age: 40 Gender: Male |
| Posted: 24-10-2003 17:51 Post subject: |
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well, I'll be sure to keep a look out for Northern Lights in a couple of hours time, just in case... Only seen them once, in Hampshire, exceedingly rare that far South, and apparently only a very minor show compared to what you can get, but still most impressive!
Steve. |
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| Anonymous |
| Posted: 24-10-2003 22:50 Post subject: |
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| Dark Detective wrote: |
I wonder whether we're going to see an increase in weirdness this weekend? |
"Greenish ghosts" in Lapland |
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| Anonymous |
| Posted: 24-10-2003 23:44 Post subject: |
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O.K. Obvious question. Any reports of aurora at anomalously low latitudes?  |
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| inkedmagiclady Queen of the Universe
Joined: 18 Sep 2003 Total posts: 697 Location: San Francisco Bay Area Age: 49 Gender: Female |
| Posted: 25-10-2003 04:06 Post subject: |
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So far I haven't felt a thing.  I am excited to see if there is an increase in weirdness due to these solar flares.
I did see an unusual amount of static electricity in my child's hair on the playground today. |
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| river_styx Chaos Magnet.
Pain Joined: 08 Feb 2002 Total posts: 2146 Location: Between Here aaaaaaand....There. Age: 35 Gender: Male |
| Posted: 25-10-2003 11:21 Post subject: |
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| Our Sky Digital was jumping about all over the place t'other day. That's about all I've noticed, not that I watch a lot of television. |
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| Guest |
| Posted: 25-10-2003 12:01 Post subject: |
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| inkedmagiclady wrote: |
I did see an unusual amount of static electricity in my child's hair on the playground today. |
More to do with dry, moistureless, air, I think.
...
People should keep an eye open for an 'aurora' display on clear nights, though.
They used to be a fairly regular feature of midwinter nights, when I used to live up in the far North of Scotland and it's a lightshow worth seeing. |
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| rynner Location: Still above sea level Gender: Male |
| Posted: 25-10-2003 15:06 Post subject: |
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Solar storm buffets Earth | Quote: | The Earth has been buffeted by a cloud of superhot gas thrown off the Sun a few days ago. Scientists report it caused a moderate "geomagnetic storm".
Charged particles affected electric utilities, airline communications and satellite navigation systems.
"We predicted it would be a mid-level storm, and that's where it is," said Joe Kunches, chief of space weather operations at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colorado.
Power grid operators and satellite users were notified about the storm and no serious problems have been reported.
"We've heard from the power grid operators. They're doing OK, but they're seeing the effects of the storm in their data," Kunches said.
Balancing act
Communications systems in northern Canada are reported to have also seen some effects of the storm.
Disruptions to electrical systems are caused by wild fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field.
"The Earth's magnetic field pulls it in ... and is now trying to balance it," Kunches said.
The Global Positioning System - a satellite navigation facility - was affected, losing its high precision service for a while.
High frequency airline communications were also degraded in some cases.
Climbers on Mt Everest also reported interference on their radio equipment.
Two major expeditions on the mountain have reported trouble sending data via satellite.
As the storm continues, predicted to be followed by others for the next two weeks or so, further disruption is predicted for satellites, power systems and even mobile phones.
It comes from one of the largest groups of sunspots seen for years.
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Excitement over -= for now! |
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| rynner Location: Still above sea level Gender: Male |
| Posted: 26-10-2003 16:25 Post subject: |
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NASA scientist dives into perfect space storm | Quote: | Newly uncovered scientific data of recorded history's most massive space storm is helping a NASA scientist investigate its intensity and the probability that what occurred on Earth and in the heavens almost a century-and-a-half ago could happen again.
In scientific circles where solar flares, magnetic storms and other unique solar events are discussed, the occurrences of September 1-2, 1859, are the star stuff of legend. Even 144 years ago, many of Earth's inhabitants realized something momentous had just occurred. Within hours, telegraph wires in both the United States and Europe spontaneously shorted out, causing numerous fires, while the Northern Lights, solar-induced phenomena more closely associated with regions near Earth's North Pole, were documented as far south as Rome, Havana and Hawaii, with similar effects at the South Pole.
"Remarkably, science has documented solar events a hundred times more intense," said Dr. Bruce Tsurutani, a plasma physicist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "But none of them interacted with the Earth in such a violent manner. What happened in 1859 was a combination of several events that occurred on the Sun at the same time. If they took place separately they would be somewhat notable events. But together they create the most potent disruption of Earth's ionosphere in recorded history. What they generated was the perfect space storm," he said.
To begin to understand the perfect space storm you must first begin to understand the gargantuan numbers with which plasma physicists like Tsurutani work every day. At over 1.4 million kilometers (869,919 miles) wide, the Sun contains 99.86 percent of the mass of the entire solar system: well over a million Earths could fit inside its bulk. The total energy radiated by the Sun averages 383 billion trillion kilowatts, the equivalent of the energy generated by 100 billion tons of TNT exploding each and every second.
But the energy released by the Sun is not always constant. Close inspection of the Sun's surface reveals a turbulent tangle of magnetic fields and boiling arc-shaped clouds of hot plasma dappled by dark, roving sunspots.
Every once in a while -- exactly when scientists cannot predict - - an event occurs on the surface of the Sun that releases a tremendous amount of energy in the form of a solar flare or a coronal mass ejection, an explosive burst of very hot, electrified gases with a mass that can surpass that of Mount Everest.
What transpired during the dog days of summer 1859, across the 150 million-kilometer (about 93 million-mile) chasm of interplanetary space that separates the Sun and Earth, was this: on August 28, solar observers noted the development of numerous sunspots on the Sun's surface. Sunspots are localized regions of extremely intense magnetic fields. These magnetic fields intertwine, and the resulting magnetic energy can generate a sudden, violent release of energy called a solar flare. From August 28 to September 2 several solar flares were observed. Then, on September 1, the Sun released a mammoth solar flare. For almost an entire minute the amount of sunlight the Sun produced at the region of the flare actually doubled.
"With the flare came this explosive release of a massive cloud of magnetically charged plasma called a coronal mass ejection," said Tsurutani. "These things actually fire out from the Sun radially, so not all of them head toward the Earth. But those that do usually take three to four days to reach Earth. This one took all of 17 hours and 40 minutes," he noted.
Not only was this coronal mass ejection an extremely fast mover, the magnetic fields contained within its charged particles were extremely intense and in direct opposition with Earth's magnetic fields. That meant the coronal mass ejection of September 1, 1859, overwhelmed Earth's own magnetic field, allowing charged particles to penetrate into Earth's upper atmosphere. The endgame to such a stellar event is one heck of a light show and more -- including potential disruptions of electrical grids and communications systems.
Back in 1859 the invention of the telegraph was only 15 years old and society's electrical framework was truly in its infancy. A 1994 solar storm caused major malfunctions to two communications satellites, disrupting newspaper, network television and nationwide radio service throughout Canada. Other storms have affected systems ranging from cell phone service and TV signals to GPS systems and electrical power grids. In March 1989, a solar storm much less intense than the perfect space storm of 1859 caused the Hydro-Quebec (Canada) power grid to go down for over nine hours, and the resulting damages and loss in revenue were estimated to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
"The question I get asked most often is, 'Could a perfect space storm happen again, and when?'" added Tsurutani. "I tell people it could, and it could very well be even more intense than what transpired in 1859. As for when, we simply do not know," he said.
To research this perfect space storm, Tsurutani and co-writers Drs. Walter Gonzalez, of the Brazilian National Space Institute, and Gurbax Lakhina and Sobhana Alex, of the India Institute of Geomagnetism, used previously reported ground, solar and auroral observations, and recently re-discovered ground-based magnetic- field data from Colaba Observatory in India. The findings were published in a recent issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research.
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| Anonymous |
| Posted: 28-10-2003 05:29 Post subject: |
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I think an ion storm would be great. There is nothing like some serious chaos for some entertainment.
I can see it now, globally loosing 80% of military satelites, power stations, radio stations and television all down.
All communications ground to a halt. The fabric of modern society crumbling. Mass riots, lynchings and martial law.
There is only one serious draw back and that is no internet and therefore no FT.
Maybe we could all get together via snail mail.
Stamp sales would soar. |
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| lopaka3 Great Old One Joined: 17 Sep 2001 Total posts: 2154 Location: Near the corner of a Big Continent Gender: Male |
| Posted: 28-10-2003 05:49 Post subject: |
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I swear, given how many threads here involve cataclysmic scenarios of one sort or another you'd think we're all End Time-Apocalyptic-Doom Freaks. (Ooh, ooh, I think I have a forum suggestion for the 'what would you like to see on MB thread).  |
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theyithian Keeping the British end up
Joined: 29 Oct 2002 Total posts: 11704 Location: Vermilion Sands Gender: Unknown |
| Posted: 28-10-2003 05:52 Post subject: |
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| lopaka wrote: |
I swear, given how many threads here involve cataclysmic scenarios of one sort or another you'd think we're all End Time-Apocalyptic-Doom Freaks. (Ooh, ooh, I think I have a forum suggestion for the 'what would you like to see on MB thread). |
You'd like to see the apocalypse on the Fortean Times MessageBoard? That's a bit of a request isn't it? |
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| lopaka3 Great Old One Joined: 17 Sep 2001 Total posts: 2154 Location: Near the corner of a Big Continent Gender: Male |
| Posted: 28-10-2003 06:06 Post subject: |
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| Well...I haven't checked the calender yet this week. But I'll just wait for the post in 'Announcements'- The Apopsicle: The Meet-Up. |
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| inkedmagiclady Queen of the Universe
Joined: 18 Sep 2003 Total posts: 697 Location: San Francisco Bay Area Age: 49 Gender: Female |
| Posted: 28-10-2003 06:09 Post subject: |
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We just don't have enough excitement around here. (Meaning planet earth.) I get all built up for this solar storm thing ....... the scientists were worried, and then, NOTHING.
I am a jaded Fortean. |
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