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| Pietro_Mercurios Heuristically Challenged
Gender: Unknown |
 Posted: 04-06-2007 22:21 Post subject: |
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| Jerry_B wrote: | | Pietro_Mercurios wrote: | | Is 12 years such a long time in the forward planning of a One Party Totalitarian State, like the USSR? |
You may need to become more familiar with how 'forward-thinking' the USSR was. If anything, the SU had a history of getting things wrong. |
That wasn't because they weren't forward thinking, though. That was because, once they'd set things in motion, it took them a long time to change direction. Seems it's not me who doesn't quite grasp how the USSR planned ahead and the sort of scale it operated on. 
| Jerry_B wrote: | | Quote: | Perhaps, the Soviets knew something that we didn't? Or, are you suggesting that they had no idea about the state of their economy, or the importance of the energy reserves in the region, not just Afghanistan, but the whole Muslim majority south of the USSR, to the continued existence of the State, both economically and strategically?
The USSR's Afghanistan War has been likened to the USA's Vietnam misadventure, but strategically, the USSR's attempt to bring Afghanistan to heel made more sense. The rise of the new Islamic radicalism obviously worried them greatly. |
It seems to me that you're trying to back-engineer current outlooks and place them on the past, to make it fit the 'war for oil' hypothesis. The idea of Islamic radicalism simply wasn't an aspect of the picture of the time. It's not something that would have bothered the SU. ... |
You must live in some alternate universe, Jerry_B. One on a different historical timeline.
| Quote: | http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_war_in_Afghanistan
Soviet war in Afghanistan
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Soviet war in Afghanistan was a nine-year conflict involving Soviet forces supporting Afghanistan's Marxist People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) government against the Mujahideen insurgents that were fighting to overthrow Communist rule. The Soviet Union supported the government while the rebels found support from a variety of sources including the United States, Pakistan and other Muslim nations in the context of the Cold War. This conflict was concurrent to the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War.
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In February of 1979, the Islamic Revolution had ousted the US backed Shahs from Afghanistan's neighbor Iran. In the Soviet Union, Afghanistan's northern neighbor, more than twenty percent of the population was Muslim. Many Soviet Muslims in Central Asia had tribal kinship relationships in both Iran and Afghanistan. The Soviet Union had also been concerned by the fact that since that February the United States had deployed twenty ships, including two aircraft carriers, and the constant stream of threats of warfare between the US and Iran.[3]
March of 1979 also marked the signing of the US backed peace agreement between Israel and Egypt. The Soviet Union leadership saw the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt as a major step in the progression of US power in the region. In fact, one Soviet newspaper stated that Egypt and Israel were now “gendarmes of the Pentagon”. The Soviets viewed the treaty as not only a cessation in the hostilities between the two nations but also as some form of military agreement. [4] In addition, the Soviets found America selling more than five thousand missiles to Saudi Arabia and also supplying the successful Yemeni resistance against communist factions. Also, the Soviet Union's previously strong relations with Iraq had recently soured. Iraq, in June 1978, began buying French and Italian made weapons as opposed to Soviet weapons.
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You might not find the Wikipedia a creditable source, but that all seems clear enough.
As to the strategic importance of the region, re oil and gas reserves, do you really think the Soviets were complete idiots? |
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ted_bloody_maul Great Old One Joined: 23 May 2003 Total posts: 4877 Location: Quester's Psykick Dancehall Gender: Unknown |
| Posted: 04-06-2007 23:02 Post subject: |
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Also from the same site:
By the time Gorbachev ushered in the process that would lead to the dismantling of the Soviet administrative command economy through his programs of glasnost (political openness), perestroika (economic restructuring), and uskoreniye (speed−up of economic development) announced in 1986, the Soviet economy suffered from both hidden inflation and pervasive supply shortages aggravated by an increasingly open black market that undermined the official economy. Additionally, the costs of superpower status — the military, KGB, subsidies to client states — were out of proportion to the Soviet economy. The new wave of industrialization based upon information technology had left the Soviet Union desperate for Western technology and credits in order to counter its increasing backwardness.
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By 1990 the Soviet government had lost control over economic conditions. Government spending increased sharply as an increasing number of unprofitable enterprises required state support and consumer price subsidies to continue. Tax revenues declined as republic and local governments withheld tax revenues from the central government under the growing spirit of regional autonomy. The anti−alcohol campaign reduced tax revenues as well, which in 1982 accounted for about 12 percent of all state revenue. The elimination of central control over production decisions, especially in the consumer goods sector, led to the breakdown in traditional supplier−producer relationships without contributing to the formation of new ones. Thus, instead of streamlining the system, Gorbachev's decentralization caused new production bottlenecks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Soviet_Union_%281985%E2%80%931991%29
Whatever the Soviet Union's motivation for its invasion of Afghanistan, and it may indeed have been related to energy supply, there would seem to have been greater in-built problems with their communist economy. After all, Russia still has enough of an energy surplus to provide both its satellite states and new European clients today.
Last edited by ted_bloody_maul on 04-06-2007 23:11; edited 1 time in total |
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| Jerry_B Great Old One Joined: 15 Apr 2002 Total posts: 8265 |
| Posted: 04-06-2007 23:05 Post subject: |
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| Pietro_Mercurios wrote: | | That wasn't because they weren't forward thinking, though. That was because, once they'd set things in motion, it took them a long time to change direction. Seems it's not me who doesn't quite grasp how the USSR planned ahead and the sort of scale it operated on. |
So you're suggesting that the Soviet Union knew that it only had 12 years left to live?
| Quote: | You might not find the Wikipedia a creditable source, but that all seems clear enough.
As to the strategic importance of the region, re oil and gas reserves, do you really think the Soviets were complete idiots? |
Of course I don't think they were idiots - well, not complete idiots. Their invasion of Afghanistan suffered from the same short-sightedness as various other attempts, past and present, to mould the country into something that suited them. They may have succeeded if the West had not intervened. By their initial actions it seems that they thought that the situation could under their control fairly quickly. The idea that it was pretty about oil and Islam is simply trying to rewrite history to make it fit with the mores of today IMHO. I think sometimes people forget how much impact the Cold War had on the political machinations of the time. |
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| Pietro_Mercurios Heuristically Challenged
Gender: Unknown |
| Posted: 04-06-2007 23:11 Post subject: |
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| Jerry_B wrote: | | Pietro_Mercurios wrote: | | That wasn't because they weren't forward thinking, though. That was because, once they'd set things in motion, it took them a long time to change direction. Seems it's not me who doesn't quite grasp how the USSR planned ahead and the sort of scale it operated on. |
So you're suggesting that the Soviet Union knew that it only had 12 years left to live?
... |
Now you're just being contemptible. |
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| lupinwick Joined: 24 Sep 2005 Total posts: 1883 |
| Posted: 05-06-2007 08:16 Post subject: |
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Seems very odd to blame the war in Afghanistan for the fall of the soviet union. There are surely other more pertinent reasons.
My understanding of Afghanistant was it was purely a war of ideologies, a face off between the US and USSR, although initially it started off differently.
| Quote: | Alarmed by the deteriorating situation, especially the collapse of the army and the prospect that a disintegrating Afghanistan would threaten its security on its southern border, the Soviet Union airlifted thousands of troops into Kabul on December 24, 1979. The Khalq president, Hafizullah Amin, was assassinated after Soviet intelligence forces took control of the government and installed Babrak Karmal, a Parchami, as president.
The Soviet occupation force of some 115,000 troops and the Karmal government sought to crush the uprisings with mass arrests, torture, and executions of dissidents, and aerial bombardments and executions in the countryside. Some one million Afghans died during this period, most in aerial bombardments. These measures further expanded the resistance to the communist government in Kabul and fueled a flow of refugees out of the country that soon reached five million out of a population of about sixteen million.
Islamist organizations that became the heart of the resistance - and collectively became known as the jihad fighters or mujahidin - based themselves in Pakistan and Iran.. Seeing the conflict as a cold war battleground, the United States and Saudi Arabia, in particular, provided massive support for the resistance, nearly all of it funneled through Pakistan. The arms pipeline gave Pakistan a tremendous ability to bolster parties in Afghanistan that would serve its own interests.
Joining the resistance forces were thousands of Muslim radicals from the Middle East, North Africa and other Muslim countries. Most fought with Pashtun factions that had the strongest support from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, the Hizb-i Islami of Gulbuddin Hikmatyar and Ittihad-i Islami of Abdul Rasul Sayyaf. Among them was Osama bin Laden, who came to Pakistan in the early 1980s and built training facilities for these foreign recruits inside Afghanistan. |
http://www.hrw.org/backgrounder/asia/afghan-bck1023.htm |
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| Jerry_B Great Old One Joined: 15 Apr 2002 Total posts: 8265 |
| Posted: 05-06-2007 09:44 Post subject: |
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| Pietro_Mercurios wrote: | | Now you're just being contemptible. |
Not at all. After all, you seemed to be suggesting that the SU knew that it was on borrowed time. |
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| Pietro_Mercurios Heuristically Challenged
Gender: Unknown |
| Posted: 05-06-2007 11:13 Post subject: |
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| Jerry_B wrote: | | Pietro_Mercurios wrote: | | Now you're just being contemptible. |
Not at all. After all, you seemed to be suggesting that the SU knew that it was on borrowed time. |
Not even that. Although, I refer you to Ted's previous post about Gorbachev's attempts at a major overhaul of the economic system, around 1986.
The Soviet system, based as it was on long term planning and a particularly monolithic and inflexible system of mass production, simply could not compete with the West. It was in trouble. But, you seem to choose to wilfully misconstrue my actual posts, in a miserable attempt to infer that I'm relying on the 'benefit of hindsight' in my extrapolation of the process whereby the Soviet Union dug itself into a state of bankruptcy and collapse.
What you suggest simply isn't there in my Posts. Or, perhaps you merely misunderstood them, overlaying your preconceptions of my argument on top? So that you read, essentially what you wanted to read, rather than what was actually Posted? |
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| Jerry_B Great Old One Joined: 15 Apr 2002 Total posts: 8265 |
| Posted: 05-06-2007 15:12 Post subject: |
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| I really don't see the need for you to have such an agressive reaction to my question. All I was asking for was some clarification of one of your previous posts. |
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| Mighty_Emperor Divine Wind
Joined: 18 Aug 2002 Total posts: 19943 Location: Mongo Age: 42 Gender: Male |
| Posted: 05-06-2007 15:38 Post subject: |
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Indeed. Can people address the points as making accusations/assumptions about other people and their motivations is a bona fide method for driving the thread off topic and into the kind of territory where moderators have to get involved beyond a simple friendly nudge.
Worth noting this is aimed at everyone on every thread here not just this specific one or any of the posters on it (although for some reason it is the kind of thing that needs mentioning a lot in the conspiracy forum).. |
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| coldelephant |
| Posted: 06-06-2007 08:51 Post subject: |
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Ok - back on topic then
Did the USA fund, train and/or otherwise encourage groups of fanatics to attack enemies only to find they deviated from their agenda later on and went awol and became terrorists instead?
To answer Emps' question, I would say that it is because people are very much into the debate and really putting feeling into what they say  |
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| Pietro_Mercurios Heuristically Challenged
Gender: Unknown |
| Posted: 06-06-2007 09:07 Post subject: |
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| coldelephant wrote: | Ok - back on topic then
Did the USA fund, train and/or otherwise encourage groups of fanatics to attack enemies only to find they deviated from their agenda later on and went awol and became terrorists instead?
... |
Were secret 'Black Op' groups, connected to, but working independently of the CIA, set up to liaise with Mudjahidin, partially through deep cover liaison, partially through the Secret Services of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, to act as the USA's proxy Islamic insurgents in Afghanistan? Perhaps, there are similarities with the sort of group set up to liaise with the Iranians and Contras, in the Iran Contra scandal?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Contra_Affair
http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/walsh/
http://911review.org/Alex/Iran-Contra_911.html
Were links maintained with Islamic extremists, specially trained in Afghanistan, after the collapse of the USSR? |
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| crunchy5 Great Old One Joined: 24 Aug 2005 Total posts: 1951 Gender: Unknown |
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| ted_bloody_maul Great Old One Joined: 23 May 2003 Total posts: 4877 Location: Quester's Psykick Dancehall Gender: Unknown |
| Posted: 06-06-2007 15:12 Post subject: |
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| Pietro_Mercurios wrote: |
Were links maintained with Islamic extremists, specially trained in Afghanistan, after the collapse of the USSR? |
Links were maintained with former Mujahadeen. However, is there any evidence that this included Bin Laden (bearing in mind that he left the country in 1989 and only returned in 1996)? Also, maintaining links with and urging more support for an opponent of the Taliban and Bin Laden (Ahmed Shah Massoud) would suggest that the links didn't extend as far as the Al-Qaeda leader. |
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| ted_bloody_maul Great Old One Joined: 23 May 2003 Total posts: 4877 Location: Quester's Psykick Dancehall Gender: Unknown |
| Posted: 06-06-2007 15:27 Post subject: |
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Very nice.
Bit OT but the site states that MB Def is one of the "most famous US rap stars". Oddly enough a google search only seems to find his name in connection with this track and is always prefixed by the description of him as one of the "most famous US rap stars". Is his name a misprint, is he a CIA asset or is it possible that sometimes those complaining about the inaccurate information being spread by one group of people might just be a teensy weensy bit disingenous themselves on occasions? |
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| crunchy5 Great Old One Joined: 24 Aug 2005 Total posts: 1951 Gender: Unknown |
| Posted: 06-06-2007 16:32 Post subject: |
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| ted_bloody_maul wrote: |
Very nice.
Bit OT but the site states that MB Def is one of the "most famous US rap stars".
I thought that, my only explanation is that it might be a misprint of mos def sometimes called the mighty mos def.
Oddly enough a google search only seems to find his name in connection with this track and is always prefixed by the description of him as one of the "most famous US rap stars". Is his name a misprint, is he a CIA asset or is it possible that sometimes those complaining about the inaccurate information being spread by one group of people might just be a teensy weensy bit disingenous themselves on occasions? |
Don't know about you but I find disingenuity often helps. |
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