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Posted: 18-05-2013 16:38 Post subject:

I'd say that you are correct in saying white papers dont really swing votes under normal circumstances, but in this case many people are sticking with what they know because of all the uncertainty independence would bring.

It's up to the SNP, and the Yes campaign in general, to clear up as much of that uncertainty as possible, which is the aim of this white paper.

Clearly there will still be many points that the SNP wont be able to answer. There are some that the UK government could answer, but they seem to think that with holding information from the voters meets their ends.
There are also points on the future which no one can answer, either for Scotland or the UK.

However I think the choices will become much clearer after September, which leaves a full year of campaigning. Also there are other factors to feed in, such as the Euro elections.

Its certainly not over, it has hardly begun.

Posted: 18-05-2013 17:00 Post subject:

Posted: 18-05-2013 17:15 Post subject:

Posted: 18-05-2013 17:33 Post subject:

I think it's the unanswered or slightly-hazily-answered questions: nukes, shipyards, currency, EU membership.

As we appear to agree, the default is to stick with the staus quo. There's a perception (true or not) that the 'Yes' campaign haven't agreed a solid position on key matters themselves, which has allowed their opponents to level the accusation that 'it hasn't been thought through'.

Posted: 18-05-2013 18:05 Post subject:

Well nukes isn't really hazy at all. This Scottish Government wants rid, they have said it time and again. Given that the Scottish Labour party also seem to want rid then I guess thats that for any forseeable future Scottish government too.

Personally I'd accept our per capita share of the nukes, and then either unilaterally disarm them, brownie points for us, or enter disarmament talks and and help disarm other countries, an all around win, but thats just me.

Shipyards, I'm not sure there are many unanswered questions there either. MOD is putting contracts abroad as things stand, and if they aren't economically viable then should they be a special case anyway?
Also remember the shipyards are in the heart of unionist voting country, so whatever was decided isn't going to make much difference in the referendum anyway.

Currency. Well there is one of Better Together's finest scaremonger tactics right there. What exactly are the Better Together campaign saying? There is already a Sterling zone between the Isle of Man, Jersey and Guernsay. Australia, Canada and Ireland all adopted the pound as interim currency following independence. Just what are Better Together saying?
Currency is one of the subjects to be addressed in the white paper, so whatever it says it wont be unanswered after that.

EU membership. Well that has kind of been dropped from the Better Together's campaign recently, as I'm sure you can imagine.

Basically its been poking at percieved soft areas of policy by Better Together so far. Tellingly they still haven't been able to score any political points, and these are exactly the areas that I expect will be hardened up, from the SNP's point of view, after September's white paper.

The SNP laid out a very long run in to this as they knew there were an awful lot of areas that they had to get firm policies in place for, and that is what they are doing at the moment...I hope Rolling Eyes

Posted: 19-05-2013 11:42 Post subject:

Interesting poll result in The Sunday Times.

Posted: 19-05-2013 12:32 Post subject:

Pietro, we are pretty much at the same point we were with the polls on independence on the day of the SNP landslide into Scottish government.

The SNP are also holding up very well for a mid term government in these days of austerity.

Isn't is slighty absurd that its English politics that are moving people towards independence though?

Is it the I'm comfy culture? Free bus pass, free prescriptions, no toll bridges, free edjumacation, basically the happiest and best governed part of the UK, but thats not enough to move voters towards independence so far.
One right wing idiot comes up and calls us fascist scum and the polls move?

Sometimes you have to wonder.

Posted: 19-05-2013 16:19 Post subject:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/poll-independence-support-would-rise-if-voters-think-uks-leaving-eu.1368959712

And here we go. As I am happy to believe polls mean nothing at the moment

Posted: 21-05-2013 12:31 Post subject:

Posted: 02-06-2013 16:26 Post subject:

Scottish independence: Study suggests most 16/17 year olds would vote 'no'

A study of teenagers who will be eligible to vote in the 2014 referendum has suggested 60% do not think Scotland should be independent.
In a major piece of work, more than 1,000 14-17 year olds were questioned by researchers from Edinburgh University.
The results indicated 21% would say yes to independence, with 19% undecided.
Of the young people questioned, 67% said they would like more information ahead of their final decision.

Sixteen and 17 year olds have never been able to take part in a national election, and the Scottish government has said it wants to ensure they have their say in the decision about Scotland's future.
Proposed legislation to allow them to vote in next year's referendum on 18 September was formally lodged before the Scottish Parliament in March.

The new study, given exclusively to BBC Scotland, was developed by researchers from Edinburgh University and funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).
Of those interviewed, 94% said they were aware the referendum will take place next year, with 69% intending to vote.

When asked the agreed referendum question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?" a total of 60.3% said no, 20.9% said yes and 18.8% were undecided.

The young people were then asked about the debate over Scottish independence so far. A third of them (32.8%) said they had enough information to make a decision, but 67.2% felt they would like more information making a final decision.

The study, the first of its kind, also asked the young people who they had talked to about the referendum, giving multiple choice answers including parents, friends, classmates, nobody.

It went on to look at the young people's level of general interest in politics and also compared their voting intention with that of their parents and in terms of age, sex and how they identify themselves in terms national identity.

Prof Lindsay Paterson, from Edinburgh University said: "No survey is ever totally definitive and we would be delighted if somebody would replicate this. We need to have more surveys. No survey on its own tells us everything that there is.
"This is an indication. It is the first time it has ever been done. There has never before been a systematic, representative, rigorous survey of the 14-17 year olds in relation to the referendum."

Both the Scottish and the UK governments welcomed the fact young people were keen to engage in the debate about Scotland's future.

A Scottish government spokesman added: "It is clear from this survey that a high proportion of the young people who took part have an open mind about how they are going to vote in the referendum - with two thirds keen to get more information about independence before they finally decide how they will vote."

The Scottish government said it would publishing a series of papers and proposals showing how independence will give new opportunities to Scotland and its people.

A spokesman for the Scotland Office said: "This poll shows that younger people in Scotland are thinking through the issues and taking the positive view that Scotland should stick with the UK family.
"But the UK government will take nothing for granted. We are also providing a wide range of objective and fact-based evidence to inform decisions on the referendum and will continue to do so."

A total of 1,018 interviews - with equal numbers for each of the eight Scottish parliament election regions - were carried out by telephone by Market Research UK between April and May this year.
Parents were asked for permission to interview their children and also asked a few questions themselves.

Most of the questions came from existing adult surveys, with some questions changed to make them more relevant to the target age group after "road testing" on pupils at Knox Academy, Haddington, East Lothian.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22745855

Posted: 04-06-2013 08:48 Post subject:

Posted: 04-06-2013 09:06 Post subject:

Posted: 04-06-2013 09:11 Post subject:

Posted: 09-06-2013 12:28 Post subject:

English devolution 'could save UK', MP David Davies says

Failure to devolve power to England could threaten the future of the UK, two senior MPs say.
Monmouth Tory MP David Davies, chair of the Welsh Affairs select committee, said English taxpayers may "wake up" to the unfairness of the situation.
Labour MP Graham Allen, whose select committee oversees constitutional reform, fears it could boost UKIP.

Their warnings come as the UK government considers giving Wales major borrowing and taxation powers.
The recommendation was made in a report by the Silk Commission into scope for further devolution for Wales.

Scotland, which already has tax varying powers, could also get additional financial powers regardless of the result of next year's referendum on independence.
Both developments would leave England without devolved powers which has prompted the concern of the two MPs.

Mr Davies told the BBC's Sunday Politics Wales programme: "I can vote for higher student fees in England while supporting a situation where students don't pay those fees in Wales.
"This is grossly unfair and the reason why people in Wales and Scotland should care about it, at least those who are unionists should care about it, is because that basic unfairness is likely to fracture the union.
"One of these days, people in England, taxpayers in England, are going to wake up, realise that this is happening, say it's absolutely outrageous and we're not having it any more, you know, let them [the UK nations] go their own separate ways."

Nottingham North MP Graham Allen, who chairs the select committee on political and constitutional reform, said the main political parties had to get a grip of the issue.
He said: "If they don't, the conventional political parties are going to leave the field free to other organisations like UKIP, who frankly don't have many policies at the moment, who might seize that opportunity and be the party of English devolution.
"That I think would be a very bad thing for the conventional parties and a very bad thing for the people in England.
"If you have those two key principles together, devolution and union, I think we'll put nationalism back in the box."

Mr Allen said devolution had been a success in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and he would like to see it applied to councils in England. Failure to do so will increase discontent, he believes.

Kevin Mahoney, a UKIP councillor in Wales, believes it is clear the traditional parties are running scared.
"They assumed the votes of the people and now they're just waking up to the fact of how disliked, despised or whatever they are, and they see UKIP coming up on the rails," he said.
"Yes, they are reacting and to a certain degree UKIP are now setting the agenda for these parties as we've seen in so many decisions."

Labour had planned to devolve powers from Westminster to regional assemblies in England but that was stopped after the North East delivered an emphatic "no" vote almost a decade ago.

Prime Minister David Cameron went to Scotland on Friday to tell his party conference that 2014 would be the year in which to save the union as a referendum is held on the issue of independence.
He said a future Conservative government would deliver "strong alternatives" to keep the UK together.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-22826860

Posted: 02-07-2013 08:52 Post subject:

Scottish referendum: Independence will cost Scotland jobs, says Cable

Scottish independence will "destabilise enterprise and potentially put jobs at risk", according to a paper produced by the UK government.
The threat to employment will result from the break-up of the UK's single market, Business Secretary Vince Cable has said.

But the claim has been dismissed by Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon as "seriously flawed".
She has called on Mr Cable to withdraw the document.

The UK government's latest analysis paper on the impact of a Yes vote in 2014 says the move would create barriers which could negatively affect trade with the rest of the UK.
It said these barriers could also damage the prospects of the rest of the UK, for whom Scotland is currently the second largest market.

The paper, which is to be launched by Mr Cable in Glasgow on Tuesday, also states that joining the European Union (EU) post-independence would not compensate for the loss of a single market within the UK, in which there are no barriers to the flow of goods, services, capital and people.

He said: "The union works for businesses on both sides of the border. Scotland is famous for its world-class products and enterprising spirit - and the UK's truly free, integrated and growing market helps Scottish firms exploit these to the full.
"The last thing firms need is a new set of rules and regulations, new costs on exports, a smaller labour market and less reliable support for innovation and knowledge transfer.
"Breaking up Scotland's most lucrative market would destabilise enterprise and potentially put growth and jobs at risk. My message to the Scottish business community is that we're stronger and more secure together."

Scottish exports to the rest of the UK totalled £45.5b in 2011 (excluding oil and gas), double the levels exported to the rest of the world and four times as much as to the rest of the EU.

The UK government says that under independence Scottish firms would have reduced access to the UK single market, extra administrative burdens for cross-border trade with the UK, different sets of business regulations on either side of the border, and tax and pension complications for individuals working on both sides of the border.

Its latest analysis also covers the impact of independence on shared UK institutions, communications and transport networks.
It suggests Scottish hauliers could be penalised for driving in the rest of the UK after independence while mobile phone users may incur additional roaming charges if they use their devices south of the border. The cost of postal services could also be affected.

But responding to the paper, Ms Sturgeon said: "The latest claims from the UK government have been shown to be misleading and inaccurate - this paper must be withdrawn.
"It is time for those in charge of this department to commit to higher standards in the material being published and ensure Project Fear has no place in government.
"Any objective analysis must acknowledge that roaming charges will have been abolished and the only risk of them being reintroduced is if the UK decides to leave the EU.
"If publication goes ahead there is a danger the UK government will be seen as just another wing of the No campaign's Project Fear."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-23133563

The Yes Campaign weakens its case when, rather than coming out with positive reasons why devolution would be a good thing, it has to resort to referring to its opponents as 'Project Fear'.