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Last edited by rynner2 on 11-12-2009 12:53; edited 1 time in total

The beeb's flagship science programme Horizon has come in for criticism in recent years for getting too lightweight, and using too many arty-farty special effects. But this one is a must-see:

How Many People Can Live on Planet Earth?

In a Horizon special, naturalist Sir David Attenborough investigates whether the world is heading for a population crisis.

In his lengthy career, Sir David has watched the human population more than double from 2.5 billion in 1950 to nearly seven billion. He reflects on the profound effects of this rapid growth, both on humans and the environment.

While much of the projected growth in human population is likely to come from the developing world, it is the lifestyle enjoyed by many in the West that has the most impact on the planet. Some experts claim that in the UK consumers use as much as two and a half times their fair share of Earth's resources.

Sir David examines whether it is the duty of individuals to commit not only to smaller families, but to change the way they live for the sake of humanity and planet Earth.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00pdjmk/Horizon_20092010_How_Many_People_Can_Live_on_Planet_Earth/

Most of us are aware that global warming is a major problem, but really it is only a side-effect of population growth. This is a must-watch documentary.

If we don't get to grip with these problems, then humanity will be an ex-species.

Posted: 11-12-2009 12:33 Post subject:

There needs to be a major change in the attitude of the world's major religions towards contraception. Also, they need to have less of a downer on homosexuality - it's another form of contraception.
Surprisingly, in "The Left Hand of the Electron", Isaac Asimov put forward the idea that we should do nothing to discourage homosexuality, as it is essential to keep the world population down.
Also, modern medicine has done a lot to keep people alive, when in a previous era disease and infant mortality kept the population down.
In 3rd world countries, they haven't caught up with this - they are still breeding children at a rate that would be more appropriate in an earlier era, when infant mortality was high.

Posted: 11-12-2009 13:09 Post subject:

I couldn't remember all the figures Attenborough gave, but according to Wolfram Alpha the World's population is 6.68 billion, and it's increasing at 1.2% per year on average. (If my maths is right, that works out at over 9,000 births per hour.)

More details here:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=population+growth

(edited to correct maths!)

Posted: 19-03-2010 09:37 Post subject:

Success of secret two-child policy could force Chinese rethink on family planning
Multiple births have long posed a problem for authorities in China bent on pursuing the one-child policy
Jane Macartney

A secret experiment allowing families in a rural Chinese county to have two children could herald the beginning of a social revolution after years of the notorious one-child-only rule.

It has emerged that, 25 years ago, Beijing secretly authorised a pilot project in Yicheng county, 560 miles (900km) southwest of the capital, in which families would be allowed to have a maximum of two children if they adhered to certain conditions.

Details of the experiment were reported for the first time in the Southern Weekend newspaper in Guangzhou — and the results are sure to call into question the viability of the official family planning policy.

According to the paper, the population of the county has grown over the 25-year period of the scheme by 20.7 per cent, which is nearly five percentage points lower than the national average, despite families being allowed two children. The experiment also appears to have redressed the imbalance between male and female births in China: the national average is 118 males to every 100 females, but in Yicheng the ratio was in line with the natural norm at 106 to 100.

Given China’s growing population imbalance as a result of its low fertility rate — which is expected to cause the working age population to peak in 2015 and plunge by 2050 — and the unexpected results of the experiment, it is no surprise that influential voices have welcomed the findings.

Liang Zhongtang, who designed the programme, believes that the draconian one-child policy has served its purpose. “Under natural conditions, with no family planning policy, the birthrate would drop faster than with strict restrictions,” he said. Zou Xuejin, of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, has also called for a relaxation of the official family planning policy.

One official who was involved with the project in Yicheng spoke of his nervousness at the start of the programme in 1985. “We were anxious that, because the one-child policy had already been in place for five years, the experiment would run out of control,” he said. “We went from house to house to explain the policy and, in fact, it went quite smoothly.”

The Yicheng experiment has its origins in the late 1970s, when Deng Xiaoping instituted the one-child policy, at a time when some academics in China wanted to set up test areas. Since then, the authorities have exempted millions of families from the one-child rule, notably farmers in rural areas where the first child was a girl.

etc...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article7067834.ece

Posted: 19-03-2010 09:57 Post subject:

I'd be fascinated to see some demographic projections that show what the varied birth-rates between different nations/races/religions will do to the composition of our species in the medium and long-term.

Posted: 19-03-2010 10:02 Post subject:

"Consuming more than their fair share."

'Fair'? If you divide a particular resource of the planet by the population you do not magically arrive at a 'fair share'. One has to consider who is spending time and resources discovering, facilitating and exploiting it, and precisely what use the resource is being put to.

Using a lot does not automatically make one selfish. It may simply indicate you are wise and resourceful.

Posted: 27-03-2010 10:42 Post subject:

Earth 'entering new age of geological time'
The Earth has entered a new age of geological time – the epoch of new man, scientists claim.
By Murray Wardrop
Published: 8:30AM GMT 27 Mar 2010

Humans have wrought such vast and unprecedented changes on the planet that we may be ushering in a new period of geological history.

Through pollution, population growth, urbanisation, travel, mining and use of fossil fuels we have altered the planet in ways which will be felt for millions of years, experts believe.

It is feared that the damage mankind has inflicted will lead to the sixth largest mass extinction in Earth’s history with thousands of plants and animals being wiped out.

The new epoch, called the Anthropocene – meaning new man – would be the first period of geological time shaped by the action of a single species.

Although the term has been in informal use among scientists for more than a decade, it is now under consideration as an official term.

A new working group of experts has now been established to gather all the evidence which would support recognising it as the successor to the current Holocene epoch.

It will consider changes human activities have brought to Earth’s biodiversity and rock structure as well as the impact of factors including pollution and mineral extraction.

It is hoped that within three years, their case will be presented to the International Union of Geological Sciences, which would decide whether the transition to a new epoch has been made.

The theory has been proposed by a group of scientists, including Paul Crutzen, the Nobel Prize-winning atmospheric chemist, in the journal Environmental Science & Technology.

They conclude: “The Anthropocene represents a new phase in the history of both humankind and of the Earth, when natural forces and human forces became intertwined, so that the fate of one determines the fate of the other. Geologically, this is a remarkable episode in the history of this planet.”

Dr Jan Zalasiewicz, of the University of Leicester, co-author of the paper, added: “It is suggested that we are in the train of producing a catastrophic mass extinction to rival the five previous great losses of species and organisms in Earth’s geological past.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/geology/7528264/Earth-entering-new-age-of-geological-time.html

Posted: 06-04-2010 09:20 Post subject:

A longer article on the Anthropocene here:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/mankind-leaves-mark-on-the-planet-with-the-end-of-the-12000year-holocene-age-1936725.html

Posted: 06-04-2010 12:00 Post subject:

Posted: 06-04-2010 17:06 Post subject:

Posted: 06-04-2010 23:20 Post subject:

Hmmmm

I don't think we'll ever arrive at the point where our population of this planet will overcome our ability to provide for everyone on it.

It reminds me of the Star Trek episode 'The Mark of Gideon'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mark_of_Gideon

An interesting idea though.

Posted: 07-04-2010 06:31 Post subject:

Asimov was correct. When he wrote that they could not make children. Now with medical and surgical advances they can make babies. Smile

Posted: 07-04-2010 07:32 Post subject:

Posted: 07-04-2010 10:52 Post subject:

Posted: 07-04-2010 20:29 Post subject: