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Posted: 11-05-2011 11:23 Post subject:

Quite a good example of mass hysteria.

(The Moon's just a day past first quarter, so if there is an earthquake we can't blame that!)

Posted: 11-05-2011 12:18 Post subject: Rome braces for 'prophet-predicted quake'

Thousands of people are reported to be staying out of Rome for the next few days, over fears the city will be hit by a huge earthquake.
The panic was sparked by rumours that seismologist Raffaele Bendandi, who died in 1979, predicted the city would be devastated by a quake on 11 May.
Officials have insisted quakes cannot be predicted and special programmes have run on state TV calling for calm.
Experts also say there is no evidence Bendandi even made the prediction.
But many people said they were leaving the city to be on the safe side.
There are reports of an 18% increase in the number of city employees planning to stay away from work.
"I'm going to tell the boss I've got a medical appointment and take the day off," barman Fabio Mengarelli told Reuters.
"If I have to die, I want to die with my wife and kids, and masses of people will do the same as me."
Another Roman, Tania Cotorobai, told Reuters she planned to spend Wednesday in the countryside.
"I don't know if I really believe it but if you look at the internet you see everything and the opposite of everything, and it ends up making you nervous."
Other people were more sceptical, or said they would make the most of the capital being slightly quieter.
"It's all just stupid - but anyway if it does happen it would be a good thing, tidy things up a bit," said Augusto Costa.
While Franceso Verselli said that Rome would be spared because it was home to the Pope: "Wherever the Pope is, nothing will happen."

'Urban myth'

The rumours have been circulating on the streets and online for months that the Eternal City is facing imminent destruction.
They were based on work by Bendandi, who was knighted by Mussolini in 1927 for his prophetic meteorological skill.
He was said to have used his theory that the movement of the planets caused seismic activity to accurately predict a 1923 quake that killed 1,000 people.
According to the rumours, before he died he pinpointed 11 May 2011 as the day Rome would be totally destroyed - to be followed by two more catastrophic events in May 2012.
Italian concerns have been heightened after the deadly quake in L'Aquila in 2009, and reports that scientist Giampaolo Giuliani had been trying to warn officials in the days before.
But the president of the Osservatorio Geofisico Comunale, the foundation that honours Bendandi, said they had no record of the much-discussed prediction and have dismissed it as an urban myth.
"I can say with absolute certainty that in the papers of Raffaele Bendandi there is no provision for an earthquake in Rome on the 11 May 2011," Paola Lagorio told Abruzzo in March.

"The date is not there, nor is the place."

Tommaso Profeta, head of Rome's civil protection services, told La Repubblica he had received a lot of calls from concerned Rome residents but that there was no danger.

"That said, our plan is to be prepared for natural disaster."

BBC Source

Posted: 11-05-2011 20:07 Post subject: Earthquake 5.3 - 11-05-11 SE Spain

Well, he wasn't far wrong - southeastern Spain (looks like region of Murcia) has had a 5.3 quake at 16.47 GMT today. Go to
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/ for live global earthquake updates.

Posted: 11-05-2011 20:11 Post subject: Re: Earthquake 5.3 - 11-05-11 SE Spain

Posted: 11-05-2011 21:03 Post subject: Re: Earthquake 5.3 - 11-05-11 SE Spain

Posted: 11-05-2011 23:39 Post subject:

Who, what, why: Can earthquakes be predicted?
By Megan Lane, BBC News

In Italy, Asia and New Zealand, long-range earthquake predictions from self-taught forecasters have recently had people on edge. But is it possible to pinpoint when a quake will strike?

It's a quake prediction based on the movements of the moon, the sun and the planets, and made by a self-taught scientist who died in 1979.
But on 11 May 2011, many people planned to stay away from Rome, fearing a quake forecast by the late Raffaele Bendandi - even though his writings contained no geographical location, nor a day or month.

In New Zealand too, the quake predictions of a former magician who specialises in fishing weather forecasts have caused unease.
After a 6.3 quake scored a direct hit on Christchurch in February, Ken Ring forecast another on 20 March, caused by a "moon-shot straight through the centre of the earth". Rattled residents fled the city.

Predicting quakes is highly controversial, says Brian Baptie, head of seismology at the British Geological Survey. Many scientists believe it is impossible because of the quasi-random nature of earthquakes.
"Despite huge efforts and great advances in our understanding of earthquakes, there are no good examples of an earthquake being successfully predicted in terms of where, when and how big," he says.

Many of the methods previously applied to earthquake prediction have been discredited, he says, adding that predictions such as that in Rome "have little basis and merely cause public alarm".

Seismologists do monitor rock movements around fault lines to gauge where pressure is building up, and this can provide a last-minute warning in the literal sense, says BBC science correspondent Jonathan Amos.

"In Japan and California, there are scientists looking for pre-cursor signals in rocks. It is possible to get a warning up to 30 seconds before an earthquake strikes your location. That's enough time to get the doors open on a fire station, so the engines can get out as soon as it is over."
But any longer-range prediction is much harder.

"It's like pouring sand on to a pile, and trying to predict which grain of sand on which side of the pile will cause it to collapse. It is a classic non-linear system, and people have been trying to model it for centuries," says Amos.

In Japan, all eyes are on the faults that lace its shaky islands.
On Monday, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda urged that the Hamaoka nuclear plant near a fault line south-west of Tokyo be shut down, pending the construction of new tsunami defences.
Seismologists have long warned that a major earthquake is overdue in this region.

But overdue earthquakes can be decades, if not centuries, in coming. And this makes it hard to prepare, beyond precautions such as construction standards and urging the populace to lay in emergency supplies that may never be needed.

Later this year, a satellite is due to launch to test the as-yet unproven theory that there is a link between electrical disturbances on the edge of our atmosphere and impending quakes on the ground below.

Then there are the hypotheses that animals may be able to sense impending earthquakes.
Last year, the Journal of Zoology published a study into a population of toads that left their breeding colony three days before a 6.3 quake struck L'Aquila, Italy, in 2009. This was highly unusual behaviour.
But it is hard to objectively and quantifiably study how animals respond to seismic activity, in part because earthquakes are rare and strike without warning.

"At the moment, we know the parts of the world where earthquakes happen and how often they happen on average in these areas," says Dr Baptie.

This allows seismologists to make statistical estimates of probable ground movements that can be use to plan for earthquakes and mitigate their effects. "However, this is still a long way from earthquake prediction," he says.

And what of the "prophets" who claim to predict these natural disasters?
"Many regions, such as Indonesia and Japan, experience large earthquakes on a regular basis, so vague predictions of earthquakes in these places requires no great skill."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-13357963

Posted: 12-05-2011 06:58 Post subject:

2 quakes in Spain kill 10, injure dozens:

"Two earthquakes struck southeast Spain in quick succession Wednesday, killing at least 10 people, injuring dozens and causing major damage to buildings, officials said. It was the highest quake-related death toll in Spain in more than 50 years."

Didn't hit Rome....or Italy for that matter, however it wasn't that far away either.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/eu_spain_earthquake

Posted: 12-05-2011 07:36 Post subject:

Posted: 12-05-2011 08:31 Post subject:

The worst predictions in history
Many Romans have fled their city after a prediction it would be hit by an earthquake. But forecasters usually get the future spectacularly wrong . . .
Patrick Barkham guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 11 May 2011 20.30 BST

He was knighted by Mussolini for his prophetic meteorological skills and now internet rumours have revived acclaim for Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian seismologist who died in 1979 but decided that 11 May 2011 would be the day that Rome would be obliterated by an earthquake. His theory that the movement of the planets triggered seismic activity caused him to successfully predict an earthquake that killed 1,000 people in 1923. But Paola Lagorio, president of a foundation that is dedicated to Bendandi and preserves his archives, insisted he never forecast an earthquake in Rome on 11 May 2011.

As a new book, History's Worst Predictions, by Eric Chaline, shows, everyone from ancient prophets to modern futurologists have, more often than not, got the future spectacularly wrong.

etc...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/11/worst-predictions-in-history

Posted: 12-05-2011 11:31 Post subject: Re: Earthquake 5.3 - 11-05-11 SE Spain

Posted: 12-05-2011 22:22 Post subject: Re: Earthquake 5.3 - 11-05-11 SE Spain

Posted: 12-05-2011 23:43 Post subject:

Perhaps, sometimes, 'Coming events', really do, 'cast their shadows before' ?

Posted: 13-05-2011 00:43 Post subject:

anyway, hold your breath, because the most superst - i mean, the most carefully cautious down here say it wasn't me<nt to happen on the 11th but - oooh - on friday the 13th

Posted: 27-05-2011 13:06 Post subject:

Woefully ignorant as I am about, among other things, the rules of evidence in Italian courts, I'm hopeful the prosecutors/government will be forced to present expert testimony showing that earthquakes are predictable.

Posted: 20-09-2011 12:45 Post subject: