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Posted: 18-03-2011 08:45 Post subject: Arab uprisings

This topic has been overshadowed by the Japanese Earthquake and its aftermath, but now the UN turns its gaze on Libya:

Libya: UK forces prepare after UN no-fly zone vote

UK forces are preparing to help enforce a no-fly zone over Libya after the UN backed "all necessary measures", short of an invasion, to protect civilians.
Downing Street has cautioned against earlier suggestions that British planes could be in action "within hours" and declined to put a timetable on it.
[But R4 has said the French are speaking of action 'within hours']

The UN resolution rules out a foreign occupation force in any part of Libya.
The cabinet will meet later and Prime Minister David Cameron will make a statement to the Commons, No 10 said.
The resolution imposes a "ban on all flights in Libyan airspace", with aid flights the only exception.
It authorises member states to "take all necessary measures" to "protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack", including in the rebel stronghold of Benghazi.
It also calls for an immediate ceasefire, an end to the violence, measures to make it more difficult for foreign mercenaries to get into Libya and a tightening of sanctions.

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said it was a "positive response to the call by the Arab League" for measures to protect Libyan civilians and was the culmination of "a great deal of hard work in the last few days" by France, the UK, Lebanon and the US.

"It is necessary to take these measures to avoid greater bloodshed," Mr Hague said.
"This places a responsibility on members of the United Nations and that is a responsibility to which the United Kingdom will now respond."

Ten UN Security Council members backed the resolution while five abstained - nine votes were needed for it to pass.
France, the UK, Lebanon, the US, South Africa, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Colombia, Portugal, Nigeria and Gabon all voted in favour, while China, Russia, Brazil, India and Germany abstained.

Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi's forces have recently retaken several towns seized by rebels in an uprising.
Rebel forces in Benghazi reacted with joy to the passing of the resolution but a Libyan government spokesman condemned UN "aggression".

Loyalist forces are bearing down on Benghazi, home to a million people. Forces loyal to Col Gaddafi have reportedly launched their first air attacks on the town, targeting the airport at Benina.
Col Gaddafi had earlier warned the rebels there that his troops were coming and to expect "no mercy".

Senior UN sources had said British and French warplanes could be in the air within hours of the UN vote to carry out initial air raids on Libyan positions, possibly with logistical support from Arab allies.
But No 10 sources have declined to put any timetable on possible British military engagement - or whether action could begin this weekend.
They said there was still lots of talking to be done, according to BBC political correspondent Norman Smith.

A Ministry of Defence spokeswoman said the UK was "developing a number of contingency plans" and continued to do so.
British ambassador to the UN, Sir Mark Lyall Grant, said the UK welcomed the fact that the UN had acted "swiftly and comprehensively in response to the appalling situation in Libya".
"We, along with partners in the Arab world and in Nato, are now ready to shoulder our responsibilities in implementing Resolution 173," he said.

The resolution would permit air strikes on Libyan ground troops or allow attacks on Libyan war ships if they were attacking civilians.

A draft UN resolution tabled by the UK, France and Lebanon on Tuesday proposed a ban on all flights in Libya, authorised member states to enforce it and called on them to participate in it.

But on Thursday the US, which had been cool on the effectiveness of a no-fly zone, said the UN should go further and a new strongly-worded draft resolution was put forward calling for "all necessary measures short of an occupation force" to protect civilians under threat of attack.

Following the UN vote Mr Cameron had a half-hour phone call with US President Barack Obama.

The unrest in Libya started after the toppling of the long-time leaders of neighbouring Tunisia and Egypt earlier this year.
Libyan protesters started to demand that Col Gaddafi step down after 42 years of autocratic rule and quickly seized much of eastern Libya.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12770467

Posted: 18-03-2011 09:07 Post subject:

Libya: I’ll attack passenger jets, warns Gaddafi, as US air strikes loom
Western forces could launch bombing raids against the Libyan regime as early as Friday after the UN backed international military action.
By Robert Winnett,, Deputy Political Editor, Jon Swaine in New York and Richard Spencer in Tripoli 6:45AM GMT 18 Mar 2011

Colonel Gaddafi threatened retaliatory attacks on passenger aircraft in the Mediterranean last night if foreign countries launched air strikes against Libya.
“Any foreign military act” would expose “all air and maritime traffic in the Mediterranean Sea” as targets for a counter attack, the Libyan regime said.

The warning was issued after America formally backed a joint British and French initiative for a no-fly zone over Libya and other military action against Col Gaddafi’s regime.

Amid growing international concern at the deteriorating situation in the country, the first bombing raids, possibly by unmanned drones, could happen as early as today. There were reports last night that the first attacks would be unilateral actions by British and French air forces with logistical support from Arab states.

The United Nations was meeting to discuss the plan as Col Gaddafi’s troops massed on the outskirts of Benghazi, the last stronghold of rebel fighters.

Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, said that a no-fly zone would involve bombing ground targets.
“A no-fly zone requires certain actions taken to protect the planes and the pilots, including bombing targets like the Libyan defence systems,” she said during a visit to Tunisia.
“Gaddafi must go,” she added, calling him “a ruthless dictator that has no conscience and will destroy anyone or anything in his way.”

In a statement, the Libyan defence ministry warned of swift retaliation against foreign intervention.
“Any foreign military act against Libya will expose all air and maritime traffic in the Mediterranean Sea to danger and civilian and military [facilities] will become targets of Libya’s counter-attack,” it said.

Speaking to state television, Col Gaddafi also urged rebels in Benghazi to surrender, warning: “We are coming tonight .?.?. there won’t be any mercy.” He said every house in the city would be searched.

The escalating crisis led to a renewed focus on Libya following criticism that President Barack Obama had been lacklustre in co-ordinating international action. David Cameron and Mrs Clinton were leading an intense round of behind-the-scenes diplomacy last night to secure international support for military action.

A draft UN Security Council resolution tabled by France, Britain and Lebanon called for the authorisation of a no-fly zone and “all necessary measures” to protect civilians under threat. The wording would allow air strikes in defence of Benghazi. The resolution ruled out “occupation force”, but it would authorise Arab states, in co-operation with the UN, to protect Libyan areas including Benghazi which were coming under attack.

“We are very concerned about the situation in Libya and the violence that is being perpetrated by the Gaddafi regime against its people,” Jay Carney, a White House spokesman, said.
“We are acting with a great sense of urgency together with our international partners to take the kinds of actions that we believe will protect Libyan citizens and move towards a situation where Gaddafi is no longer in power.”

British officials indicated that detailed planning had already taken place and that military assets could be in place “within hours”. François Fillon, the French prime minister, also said that bombing raids could be launched imminently.

A spokesman for Mr Cameron added: “The Prime Minister has spoken to a number of Arab and African leaders. We can now confirm that he has also spoken to several European leaders. In all his calls, the Prime Minister has made the case for strong action by the UN Security Council, to increase the pressure on Gaddafi and put a stop to the campaign he is waging against the Libyan people.”

Any military action is likely to be controversial as both the German and Italian governments have spoken out against intervening in the month-long civil war.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8389769/Libya-Ill-attack-passenger-jets-warns-Gaddafi-as-US-air-strikes-loom.html

Posted: 18-03-2011 09:13 Post subject:

Good to see that Obama woke up at last. Let's see if he did so in time to save the rebellion. It looks to be the beginning of the end for them, to be honest.

Posted: 18-03-2011 09:14 Post subject:

Bahrain police round up opposition leaders and take over hospital
Bahrain’s police rounded up opposition leaders at gunpoint and took over a major hospital as it continued a violent crackdown on a protest movement despite international calls for restraint.
By Ben Farmer, Manama 5:55PM GMT 17 Mar 2011

Security forces again clashed with Shia demonstrators as the Sunni monarchy sought to quell the month-long protest movement, which is calling for constitutional reform. The Bahraini capital Manama was tense but calm as troops in armoured vehicles funnelled traffic into checkpoints at key bridges and junctions.

Security forces took control of Salmaniya medical centre, Manama’s main hospital. Doctors and opposition figures alleged that wounded Shia protesters were denied treatment and staff were harassed.

Seven opposition figures were rounded up in raids including Hassan Mushaima, the leading Shia dissident, who had recently returned from exile in London.
They have been accused of contacting foreign states and inciting murder and vandalism, according to a statement from the island state’s military officials.

The United Nations condemned the hospital takeover as “shocking and “a blatant violation of international law”. Sheikh Ali Salman, the head of the Wefaq, the largest opposition group, called for a UN investigation and urged Saudi Arabia to withdraw its forces from Bahrain. More than 1,000 Saudi soldiers entered the country on Monday at the request of King Hamad after a weekend of violence.

William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, said Britain deplored “the loss of life and the escalation of violence”. The Government has advised the 7,000 Britons in Bahrain to leave on scheduled flights and has provided two charter flights to ferry more than 300 people to Dubai. However, all fleeing Britons took commercial flights. Hundreds of expatriate workers have left.

Mohammed al-Maskati, president of the Bahrain Youth Society for Human Rights, said the crackdown had so far failed to snuff out the protest. “We need at least three or four days to see if the movement is crushed, but so far it isn’t. They are still protesting,” he said.

West of the city, police fired shotguns and tear gas to disperse several hundred protesters in the village of Deih, although there were no reports of casualties.

Government troops remained in control of the Pearl Monument Roundabout, which was the focus of demonstrations until a makeshift protest camp was swept away on Wednesday morning with the use of armoured vehicles and tear gas.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/bahrain/8388834/Bahrain-police-round-up-opposition-leaders-and-take-over-hospital.html

Posted: 18-03-2011 10:05 Post subject:

Patrick Cockburn: To have an impact, this kind of intervention needs clear objectives
Friday, 18 March 2011

Western nations will soon be engaged in a war in Libya with the noble aim of protecting civilians. But the course of such a conflict is impossible to predict. The UN Security Council has authorised the use of "all necessary measures", including aerial bombing, to avert a military victory by Colonel Gaddafi. It was not at all clear what this authorisation will mean in practice.

The Americans, the British and the French have come to understand that establishing a no-fly zone is not enough. Colonel Gaddafi's main strike force consists of tanks and infantry, so inability to use aircraft might not be sufficient to stop him capturing Benghazi and eastern Libya. Given that most of the Libyan population lives in cities and towns close to the sea, air strikes on the main coast road might stop the regime's motley forces. But it is the tradition of wars in the Middle East that the first days of foreign involvement are always the best.

There is less clarity with Libya. Is the aim to defend the rebels in the east of the country?

Will it extend to any surviving rebel strongholds in the west, such as Misurata, where there has been street fighting? Is the aim to get rid of Colonel Gaddafi? No-fly zones on their own are difficult to make work effectively. They may have an intimidatory effect, but this depends largely on the implied threat of air strikes. A no-fly zone alone would not have saved the Shia or Kurdish uprisings of 1991, because Saddam Hussein had armour and mechanised divisions, which militiamen could not resist.

In 1996, Saddam Hussein captured the Kurdish capital, Arbil, with the co-operation of one of the Kurdish parties and the US did not intervene. The occasions when outside air power does work is when strike aircraft are being directed by specialist teams of foreign soldiers on the ground, acting in co-operation with local militias.This caused the collapse of the Taliban in 2001 and of the Iraqi government forces in northern Iraq in 2003. The problem is that it is not clear who the US and Europe will be aiding. The most surprising development in this uprising is that it began with the defection of military units but these, until the last few days, have not appeared on the battlefield. Hillary Clinton says what really changed her mind about intervening in Libya was the Arab League's statement calling for action. But the members of this somewhat discredited body are mostly autocracies which may dislike Gaddafi, but whose methods of government are no less repressive.

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/patrick-cockburn-to-have-an-impact-this-kind-of-intervention-needs-clear-objectives-2245408.html

Posted: 18-03-2011 11:10 Post subject:

Black humour in a Tim Sanders (Independent) cartoon:

Two vultures sitting on a branch - one says to the other

"Does the No-Fly zone include us?"

Posted: 18-03-2011 12:49 Post subject:

Which Arab League states are going to be involved in policing the no fly zone?

More interestingly, why?

Posted: 18-03-2011 12:52 Post subject:

Posted: 18-03-2011 13:16 Post subject:

Posted: 18-03-2011 13:30 Post subject:

A wicked , shameful resolution that sickens me to my stomach.

Why not Yemen, Syria, Bahrain, and of course Saudi Arabia, amongst others?

The abstentions are more interesting than the ayes on the council:

Russia, China, Germany, Brazil, India

Rather than the political foreign policy 'heavyweights' of Gabon, Lebanon, Nigeria, Bosnia, Portugal amongst others who have just splashed blood all over our collective hands.

When that first drone-deployed HellFire missile flies into a hospital wing or schoolbus - which it surely will - then what are we to do?

The western news media coming out of Libya is so spun its almost pointless reading it. get on google news for a true count of civilian casualties, compared to what is being dissembled on TV.

Posted: 18-03-2011 13:31 Post subject:

Perhaps the Saudi's could be persuaded to withdraw their troops from Bahrain in order to show their commitment to democracy in Libya.

Posted: 18-03-2011 13:40 Post subject:

Live from Libya now:

Libya accepts the UN resolution, and proposes an immediate cease-fire.

Interesting...

Posted: 18-03-2011 13:58 Post subject:

Posted: 18-03-2011 15:17 Post subject:

I don't think you need to back track quite so quickly Twin Star. Just saying that they agree to a cease fire doesn't make it true. Wait for reports of a group of rebellious Libyans using force, and Gaddaffi has a plausible excuse for using military force again, with a modicum of legitimacy this time.

The thing that's interesting me at the mo is the rhetoric coming from Cameron "I absolutely believe this is the right thing to do" (mmm, where have I heard that before?).

Posted: 18-03-2011 15:26 Post subject: